UnitedHealth Stock Sees 14% Gain Amid Promising Trends in Medicaid and Optum Health
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) made significant announcements in recent weeks, including the appointment of Jodee Kozlak as its first chief administrative officer. This development comes after the company named Dan Kueter chief commercial officer.
The stock has seen a 14% gain so far in 2026, reaching $376.59 on September 25. However, it remains about 18% below its intraday 52-week high of $461.62.
UnitedHealth's investor relations materials and a conference appearance by Chief Financial Officer Wayne DeVeydt point to promising trends for Medicaid and Optum Health in 2027. This is particularly evident in the company's projected margin growth, with DeVeydt expecting blended Medicaid rate increases of 6% to 7%, putting margins near the better end of the -1% to -1.7% range.
The company has also seen an improvement in Optum Health's operating loss, with a $278 million operating loss in 2025 projected to reach around 2% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. Krista Nelson, CEO of Optum Health, stated that the unit is 'in a position to expand margin by points inside '27.'
UnitedHealth's potential total return is estimated at ~60%, with an annualized IRR of ~12%. However, this comes with some risks, including the possibility of audits or Star ratings cutting revenue. The company's mid-case scenario projects EPS growth around 10% a year, while the P/E multiple drifts about 1% lower per annum.