UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is on track for its best year since 2021, with shares up nearly 17% in 2026, outpacing the S&P 500's 14% gain. The company reported strong third-quarter earnings, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.69 and revenue of $112.69 billion, both surpassing analyst estimates. UnitedHealth also raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to at least $20.50, up from its previous range of $19.50 to $20.00.
CFO Wayne DeVeydt suggested that Wall Street may be underestimating the company's earnings potential for 2027. He highlighted share repurchases, value-based care, and advancements in artificial intelligence as key drivers for future growth. However, he also noted challenges such as policy reforms, medical-cost trends, and funding pressures. Analysts' consensus for 2027 EPS is approximately $22.80, but DeVeydt believes the lower end of UnitedHealth's long-term adjusted earnings growth target of 13% to 16% is a reasonable starting point.
UnitedHealth's revenue has seen significant growth, climbing 61% from $70.2 billion in the first quarter of 2021 to $112.7 billion in the third quarter of 2026. However, operating profit has remained nearly unchanged, slipping slightly from $6.7 billion to $6.6 billion. The company's medical care ratio improved to 88.4% in the third quarter, reflecting tighter pricing and cost controls. UnitedHealth expects its Medicare Advantage membership to continue growing, with at least 69% of members in highly rated plans for 2027.
Optum, UnitedHealth's health-services division, contributed significantly to the company's earnings, with Optum Health's earnings surging to $735 million. Optum Rx reported that external clients now make up more than half of its membership for the first time. Retail sentiment for UNH has turned extremely bullish, with increased message volumes and watcher base growth on Stocktwits.