US Chip Export Controls Take Backseat at Xi-Trump Summit

US semiconductor chip export controls took center stage at the recent Xi-Trump summit but surprisingly didn't receive much attention. The US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, said that the US side had taken 'off the table' all export controls related to national security issues during trade talks. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not mention export controls in its announcement of eight deliverables from the summit.

The Trump administration has largely kept intact restrictions first introduced by the Biden administration in October 2022 on China's ability to obtain advanced chips and chipmaking equipment. Some areas were even tightened, including a ban on exporting Nvidia's H20 chip to China. Beijing has likely grown more comfortable with the export controls already in place as it looks to deepen its technological self-reliance campaign.

China's growing confidence in its chip self-reliance efforts may explain the relative calm. Chinese chip manufacturers are taking a greater share of the domestic market, and domestic chip substitution is expected to further ramp up in the coming years. The US congressional efforts to bolster its export controls regime, including the Match Act, could put this progress to the test.

Senior Chinese officials have referenced US technological restrictions on China in statements elsewhere. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China and the US should not 'adopt a defensive posture towards each other' in the emerging field of AI. The relative quiet on export controls this week might reflect strong domestic pressure on both sides not to concede ground.