US Fraud Crackdown May Send Obamacare Premiums Soaring

The US government's crackdown on fraud in Obamacare health insurance plans may lead to increased costs for consumers and insurers, according to policy experts. The move could remove healthy, low-cost enrollees from the market, adding pressure to a shrinking marketplace.

Under the Affordable Care Act, nearly 19 million people are enrolled in income-based government-subsidized health plans. However, millions have dropped out this year as extra COVID-19 pandemic subsidies expired. The Trump administration claims that fraud contributed to the growth of these enrollments.

The government has removed 760,000 enrollees it believes did not exist or were fraudulently signed up by brokers and are unaware of their insurance coverage. Another 400,000 are under review. Insurers like UnitedHealth and Centene may see a sicker mix of patients in the remaining months of 2026 and 2027, which could eat into their profits.

Premium rates for 2027 have already been filed and approved, but investors and analysts say insurers will likely set prices even higher in 2028 to reflect the drop in enrollees. This move could exacerbate growth and make health insurance less affordable for consumers.