Visa Prepares for Agentic Commerce, But Will It Be a Game-Changer?

Visa's shares have surged over 350% in the last decade as CEO Ryan McInerney predicts that agentic commerce will be a reality, not just a possibility. Agentic commerce refers to the use of artificial intelligence (AI) shopping agents that can automatically complete transactions on behalf of consumers.

McInerney has stated that 'agentic commerce is a when, not an if,' and believes it will expand Visa's addressable market and drive future growth for the company. However, this narrative is not new to Visa shareholders, as the company has faced similar threats in the past with e-commerce, mobile wallets, and tokenization.

Each of these previous transitions was pitched as a potential disruptor to the card networks, but ultimately ended with the same result: the network kept carrying the volume because settlement, fraud liability, and dispute resolution remained unchanged. Tokenization is now a significant contributor to Visa's revenue, generating fees on nearly 60% of global e-commerce transactions.

In its recent fiscal third-quarter earnings report, Visa reported net revenue of $11.6 billion, up 14.4% year over year, with value-added services revenue growing 34%. The company also repurchased approximately 14.5 million shares at an average price of $330.71 and returned $6.2 billion to shareholders.

While some analysts may be worried about the impact of agentic commerce on Visa's business, McInerney's comments suggest that the company is prepared for this transition. In fact, Visa has already partnered with OpenAI to secure agent-driven transactions, indicating that integration is already underway.