$150 Oil: Bank of America Warns of Persistent Disruptions

Bank of America commodity analyst Francisco Blanch expects Brent crude to surge well above $150 per barrel before global demand finally gives way. This is because the disruptions caused by the conflict in the Gulf have become persistent, rather than a temporary shock.

The bank has raised its second-half 2026 Brent forecast to $95 from $83. Blanch notes that despite oil prices being near $100 a barrel, the global economy has absorbed the shock surprisingly well. Governments are spending freely, monetary conditions remain loose, and nominal growth is strong.

Energy spending remains a relatively small share of global output, and credit markets have not deteriorated in a meaningful way. Blanch attributes this to the fact that energy prices are still relatively affordable when adjusted for income and inflation, and growth is not slowing down yet.