$4,600 or $6,000: Analysts Divided on Gold Price Trajectory

The gold price has been steadily climbing in recent months, and analysts are divided on its future trajectory. According to a forecast from EBC Financial Group, major institutions such as J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs have varying predictions for the gold price by year-end 2026.

The base case put forth by EBC is that the gold price will range between $4,600 and $4,900 by year-end 2026, citing strong official-sector demand, recovering ETF flows, and restrictive US yields as contributing factors. However, J.P. Morgan stands out with its bullish prediction of a Q4 average at $6,000.

Central banks have been actively buying gold, purchasing 289 tonnes in Q2, which has helped support the elevated prices seen in recent months. Despite this, high US yields still pose a challenge to further price increases, with the US 10-year Treasury yield near 4.65% as of August 7.

Gold ETFs have also shown signs of recovery, attracting $3 billion in July and increasing holdings by 23 tonnes to 4,068 tonnes. However, North American funds remain in net outflow territory for 2026.