Alberta Fiscal Deficit Expected to Reach Almost $10 Billion by 2027

The Alberta government's fiscal deficit is expected to reach almost $10 billion in the fiscal year 2026-27, according to Servus Credit Union's Chief Economist, Charles St-Arnaud.

This estimate takes into account lower oil prices compared to the assumptions used in Budget 2025. While the current WTI oil price has been averaging around $62.85, it is expected to rise to $60 over the fiscal year, which would lead to a widening of the deficit by about $2.9 billion.

In the absence of significant spending cuts, balancing the budget without higher oil prices seems virtually impossible. The narrow spread between WCS and WTI oil prices has helped to boost oil revenues, but this differential is unlikely to narrow further in the coming years.