Alberta Independence Would Require Up to $170 Billion in Funding

The Alberta government commissioned a report to assess the costs of separation from Canada. The report's authors estimated that leaving Canada would require up to $170 billion in funding and 70,000 civil servants. The study considered two scenarios: a smooth transition where the federal government makes concessions, and a tough slog with Ottawa taking a hard line on negotiations.

In the smooth-transition scenario, an independent Alberta could prosper, with a long-term gross domestic product rate 3.4 per cent higher than if it stayed in Canada. The report also listed 'opportunities' for Alberta, such as its oilsands not being subject to environmental policies and its health system being free to pursue private options.

However, if Ottawa decided to get tough at the bargaining table, separating would be extremely difficult, if not impossible. The federal government could impose trade barriers and tolls on Alberta oil moving through B.C., while also making an example of Alberta to discourage other provinces from pursuing independence.

The report's authors noted that without Alberta and its economic output, Canada's global economic standing would fall, the dollar would weaken, investment would decline, and Ottawa would be forced to raise taxes or cut spending. The study was budgeted at $1.5 million and considered issues like currency, tax collection, labour mobility, setting up a military, mail, and international shipping for residents.

Jeff Rath, a lawyer and leading figure in Alberta's separatist movement, dismissed the report as a 'joke' built on false assumptions. Keith Wilson, another leader in the movement, rejected the report as 'unrealistically pessimistic.'