Alberta's Credit Ratings Affirmed at AA Amid Stronger Oil Revenue

The credit ratings of Alberta have been affirmed at AA by Morningstar DBRS, with a Stable trend. The affirmation comes after the province's first-quarter update for 2026-27 showed a stronger fiscal position than budgeted, thanks to higher resource revenue. Specifically, Alberta is forecast to post a C$2.0 billion surplus in 2026-27, compared to a budgeted deficit of C$9.4 billion.

The province's adjusted debt-to-operating revenues ratio is expected to fall to 106.2% for 2026-27, down from 116.6% forecast for the prior year. Morningstar DBRS notes that Alberta's economy grew 2.7% in 2025, making it the third-fastest-growing provincial economy in Canada.

However, the agency cautions that credit outlook faces risks from commodity price and macroeconomic volatility. An upgrade to Alberta's rating would require material progress in economic diversification or a significant strengthening of its balance sheet, while a downgrade could follow if there is a sustained deterioration in financial risk metrics.