Alberta's Oil Sands Could See 25% GDP Boost Under New Economic Deal

A new economic deal between Alberta and Canada could boost oil sands GDP by an additional $110 billion over the next decade, according to modeling done by Lennie Kaplan. This would represent a 25% increase in Alberta's oil production, which is assumed to reach around 7.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2035.

The increased production would lead to expanded pipeline egress and incentivize carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the oil sands sector, with an estimated 16 Mt in annual CCS by 2035.

Kaplan argues that pursuing independence for Alberta could jeopardize investments in projects such as the West Coast Oil Pipeline (WCOP), other pipeline expansions, and brownfield and greenfield oil sands projects. He also notes that a new economic deal would give Canada greater leverage in negotiations with the US over trade agreements.