Analysts Raise 2026 Oil Price Forecasts on Geopolitical Risks

Analysts have raised their oil price forecasts for 2026, citing geopolitical risks as a key driver, though concerns about oversupply may limit significant gains. A survey of 34 economists and analysts conducted in February projected that Brent crude would average $63.85 per barrel in 2026, up from $62.02 in January. U.S. crude is expected to average $60.38 per barrel, compared with January’s estimate of $58.72.

Norbert Rucker, head of economics & next generation research at Julius Baer, noted that oil prices currently include a geopolitical risk premium. However, he cautioned that tensions with Iran may prove temporary, shifting focus back to the supply glut and lasting pressure on prices.

Concerns over a potential conflict between the U.S. and Iran have added a risk premium of $4 to $10 per barrel to oil prices. Analysts expect a market surplus ranging from 0.8 million to 3.5 million barrels per day, partly dependent on China’s stockpiling efforts. Cyrus De La Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, highlighted that a slowdown in China’s strategic stockpiling could exacerbate the oversupply.

OPEC+ is likely to consider increasing oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April, ending a three-month pause in production increases. The group is preparing for peak summer demand, and analysts suggest that geopolitical risks could further encourage output hikes. Meanwhile, U.S. oil production is expected to either plateau or slightly decline in 2026, with demand growth projected between 0.5 and 1.1 million barrels per day.