Argentina Wheat Crop Forecast Revised Higher as Favorable Weather Boosts Production

The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has revised its estimate for Argentina's wheat crop in the 2026-27 marketing year. The new forecast is 21.6 million tonnes, a 600,000-tonne increase from the initial projection issued in April.

This revision reflects an additional 200,000 hectares planted, bringing the harvested area to 6.6 million hectares. Favorable weather and lower input prices have incentivized farmers to expand late-season planting, with over 90% of the crop planted by mid-July.

While the estimated harvested area is only slightly below last year's record total, production is forecasted to decline by 6.3 million tonnes due to exceptional yields achieved in 2025-26.

The FAS has also revised Argentina's wheat exports higher to 15.5 million tonnes, a 500,000-tonne increase from the previous projection. This is due in part to lower protein levels in this year's crop, limiting its suitability for high-quality markets such as Brazil and Eastern Africa.