Australia's Resource Export Earnings Peak at $422 Billion Before Decline

The Australian government's Department of Industry, Science and Resources has released its September 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) report. The report forecasts that Australia's resources and energy export earnings will peak in the near term before easing later in the 5-year outlook period.

The current conflict in the Middle East is impacting global supply chains, causing trade and production disruptions that are lifting prices for energy commodities and input prices globally. This has boosted demand for Australian resources due to growing investment in AI infrastructure and the energy transition.

According to the report, export earnings are forecast to rise to $422 billion in 2026-27, up from $403 billion in 2025-26, before falling to $391 billion in 2027-28. By 2030-31, earnings are projected to fall to $379 billion ($343 billion in real terms).

The report highlights that gold export earnings will decline by 6% from almost $72 billion in 2025-26 to $68 billion in 2026-27, before falling to $61 billion (in real terms) in 2030-31. This is driven by lower gold prices and a modest appreciation of the AUD/USD exchange rate.