BHP Share Price Rockets Past Analyst Targets Amid Copper-Fueled Surge

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) has hit a new record high in August 2026, surpassing every analyst's 12-month price target after its FY26 results. The company's underlying EBITDA reached US$32.9 billion, a 27% increase from FY25 and the strongest earnings result in its 160-plus-year history.

The profit surge was not driven by commodity prices alone, but also by a 6% reduction in unit costs across BHP's major asset base and production increases at both coal and iron ore operations. The company's confirmation that copper now accounts for 54% of its underlying EBITDA marks a fundamental repositioning of the company's earnings profile.

The NYSE ADR price action suggests global demand for BHP extends beyond Australian retail and superannuation flows, with institutional investors buying into the stock due to its exposure to copper, critical minerals, and emerging market infrastructure. Despite this, analysts remain cautious, with a majority holding rating and one sell recommendation from Morgans.