Biofuel Mandates Threaten Food Prices and Land Resources
New research from Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council warns that faster biofuel mandates may sharpen competition for corn, rice, sugar crops, and vegetable oils through 2030.
The report projects that broader biofuel targets will create demand for 36 million additional hectares of cropland worldwide by 2030, an expanse comparable to Germany's land area. This added pressure on cropland is attributed to announced mandates and targets, not the clearance of forests.
Biofuel feedstock production currently occupies roughly 32 million hectares in 2023, with prior expectations pointing to a further 20 million hectares needed by 2030. However, the recent wave of expanded government targets may lift the total implied land footprint to about 68 million hectares.
Subra Bhattacharjee, director general of the Forest Stewardship Council, cautions that swift biofuel growth can drive prices higher and impose still more pressure on land, water, and communities already confronting mounting uncertainty. He warns that a near-term answer to an energy crisis may produce a longer-lasting shock in food markets.