Biofuel Output to Surge 70% Amidst Gulf Energy Crisis

The global biofuel output is expected to surge nearly 70% by 2030 due to the Gulf energy crisis triggered by the Iran war. The study, co-authored by London-based think tank Chatham House and non-profit certification group the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), found that major producing countries are pushing ahead with raising blending mandates.

The increase in biofuel production is driven by rising fossil fuel prices, which have increased nearly 40% since the Iran war began in late February. Sugar and corn prices have gained about 20%. Biofuels such as ethanol can be produced from a range of organic feedstocks but are typically made from food crops or animal feed.

The study's authors warned that the latest surge in demand risks worsening food inflation and deforestation. They estimated that if all proposed mandates are fully implemented, the land needed to produce biofuel feedstocks could more than double by 2030 compared with 2023 levels, requiring an additional 36 million hectares of land - roughly the size of Germany.

The authors emphasized the need for environmental safeguards and certification systems to be implemented quickly to mitigate the risks associated with increased demand for feedstocks. They noted that conventional biofuels tend to have net negative consequences for land degradation, food security, and water use.