Black Sea Grain Highway Collapses Amid Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Black Sea grain highway has been severely disrupted due to escalating military strikes between Russia and Ukraine since mid-2026. This has resulted in a significant reduction in grain shipments from both countries, which together supply around one-quarter to one-third of the world's wheat exports.

According to forecasts, Ukrainian grain exports have been slashed from approximately 64 million tons to around 30 million tons for the 2026/27 marketing cycle. Russia's own wheat exports haven't fared much better, with shipments estimated between 1.5 and 3.4 million tons in August, compared to a typical average of around 5 million.

The disruption has caused wheat prices to surge approximately 24% since January 2026, hitting two- to three-year highs. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has flagged alarming increases in food prices tied directly to these supply disruptions, with forecasts suggesting global food prices could rise by 11.8% over the course of 2026.

The regions most exposed are those that were already fragile: the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Southeast Asia. These areas depend heavily on imported wheat and have limited domestic production capacity to absorb the shock.