Black Sea Supply Woes Boost Wheat Prices Amid Export Deadlock

Wheat prices climbed 0.9% to $6.89 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade as concerns over Black Sea grain supplies persisted. The delay in resuming exports from the region has traders on edge, with a Singapore-based trader noting, “There were hopes that exports via the Black Sea would resume, but nothing seems to have happened and cargoes are still not leaving.”

The lack of diplomatic progress to restore normal shipping in the Black Sea is further pressuring the market. Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected proposals to end attacks in the region, according to Reuters. Consulting firm SovEcon downgraded its forecast for Russian grain exports in the 2026/2027 season to 44.7 million metric tons from a previous estimate of 49.4 million tons, citing expectations that ports in the Azov and Black Seas will remain closed until 2027.

Meanwhile, corn prices fell 0.2% to $4.9725 per bushel, partly due to higher US stocks. The US Department of Agriculture reported that as of September 1, farmers and grain operators had 35% more corn on hand compared to the same month the previous year. Traders are awaiting new data from the USDA on corn and soybean production and stocks.

StoneX adjusted its forecasts, lowering the average US corn yield in 2026 to 182.1 bushels per acre from 182.9 bushels, while raising the soybean yield forecast to 54.1 bushels per acre from 53 bushels a month earlier. Soybeans rose 0.2% to $12.8025 per bushel, with all three markets influenced by the ongoing US harvest.