Black Sea Wheat Exports Plummet to Historic Low

Black Sea wheat exports have taken a significant hit this season, with the combined totals from Russia and Ukraine estimated at around 8 million tons in July-September. This is the lowest level for the first three months of a season since 2010/11.

In comparison to last year's export figures, which stood at 16.2 million tons, this year's numbers are down by more than half. The five-year average for wheat exports from these countries during the same period is 18.2 million tons.

Russian wheat exports have been particularly affected, with an estimated 5.4 million tons shipped in July-September - a 53% decline compared to last year. Ukrainian wheat shipments are also down, at 2.6 million tons, which represents a 45% drop from the same period last year.

Despite this downturn, SovEcon's Andrey Sizov believes that Black Sea flows will recover relatively quickly, but there is currently no clear path to normalizing shipping.