Brent Crude Fails to Cross $100 Despite Ongoing Gulf Disruptions

The global oil benchmark Brent crude has rallied this month but remains below $100 a barrel despite disruptions in Gulf exports due to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

Oil supplies from the Middle East have fallen sharply, with daily shipments dropping to around 11 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 18 million bpd before the Iran war began seven months ago.

Rystad Energy's Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti noted that while flows through the Strait of Hormuz had doubled in the week before fighting erupted again on August 30, they have since fallen to below 2 million bpd, with a daily moving average still around 4-5 million barrels.

Gulf producers have found alternative routes and are expected to continue sending cargoes for ship-to-ship transfers outside of Hormuz, mitigating some of the earlier shortfall. Non-OPEC producers including the U.S., Canada, and Guyana are set to increase output by a combined 1.4 million bpd this year, partly filling the shortfall.