Brent Crude Predicted to Reach $120 as Gulf Tensions Escalate

New Delhi - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia are expected to continue posing significant upside risks to global energy markets. According to a report by Brickwork Ratings, Brent crude prices may remain elevated through the second half of FY27 and could rise to $120 per barrel if disruptions in the region persist.

The report assigns a 55% probability to this base-case scenario, which sees Brent crude averaging between $95 and $110 a barrel over the next six months. In contrast, a more severe disruption scenario carries a 30% probability, with prices potentially spiking to $120 or higher.

Rajeev Sharan, Head of Research at Brickwork Ratings, noted that Brent futures have already risen by about 20% in a month to around $109 on September 15. Physical Brent has reached as high as $130.80, indicating tight supply.