Brent Crude Price Volatility Persists Despite Recovering Gulf Exports

The Brent crude oil price has remained volatile around $100 per barrel despite Gulf crude-oil export capacity having rebounded.

This paradox is not solely due to concerns about whether crude can be shipped out, but broader issues with refined-product supply, shipping costs, inventory safety margins, and the resilience of energy infrastructure.

Goldman Sachs estimates that oil exports from the Gulf region have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day, while JPMorgan puts it at around 17.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 98% of pre-conflict levels.

The underlying risks continue to be factored into pricing, and a restoration of transport capacity does not necessarily mean that risks have vanished.