Chile forecasts lower copper prices for 2026 and 2027

The Chilean government has projected that the average price of copper will be USD 6.15 per pound in 2026 and USD 5.65 per pound in 2027. These estimates, released on October 6, 2026, serve as a planning input for the country's budget rather than a trading forecast. Historically, Chile's estimates have tended to be conservative during market upswings and outdated during downturns, with revisions often having more impact than the initial figures.

The projected decline in copper prices from 2026 to 2027 suggests an assumption of easing market tightness rather than sustained spot strength. This outlook could influence state-linked producer capital expenditure and output plans, particularly for Codelco, Chile's state-owned copper giant. The projections also feed into longer-dated supply expectations, though they have limited direct impact on the front of the London Metal Exchange (LME) curve.

Analysts will be watching for any revisions to these assumptions as the budget process advances, as well as accompanying output guidance. The gap between fiscal assumptions and market consensus forward curves has historically been corrected through adjustments to the assumptions rather than market movements.