China's Agriculture Outlook Committee (CAOC) has revised its forecasts for soybean and corn production in its latest China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) report, released on October 9, 2026. The committee cut its 2026/27 soybean production forecast to 20.36 million tonnes, down from 20.95 million tonnes in September, citing lower planted area and yield. Despite the reduction, output remains above 20 million tonnes. Harvested area was reduced to 10.11 million hectares, and the yield estimate was trimmed to 2,013 kg per hectare from 2,055 kg per hectare.
The committee kept its 2026/27 soybean import, crush, and consumption forecasts unchanged at 95.5 million tonnes, 94 million tonnes, and 113.96 million tonnes, respectively. The smaller harvest led to a reduction in the inventory build for 2026/27, trimming it by 590,000 tonnes to 1.75 million tonnes. Current-year 2025/26 estimates for imports and crush were held steady at 108 million tonnes and 101.5 million tonnes, respectively.
For corn, CAOC lowered its 2025/26 feed consumption estimate by 9.4 million tonnes to 201.5 million tonnes, while raising industrial use by 4 million tonnes to 85 million tonnes. The adjustments were carried into the 2026/27 outlook, reducing feed consumption to 200.5 million tonnes and increasing industrial use to 85.5 million tonnes. Total 2026/27 corn consumption was trimmed to 306.85 million tonnes from 311.65 million. Production and import forecasts for 2026/27 were maintained at 306 million tonnes and 6 million tonnes, respectively.
Vegetable oil forecasts were left unchanged for both marketing years, with production, imports, consumption, and exports held steady. The committee noted that new-crop peanuts had entered the market in large volumes, but trade remained quiet due to slower farmer selling and softer oil-mill procurement post-holidays. Domestic prices are expected to find firmer support as consumption peaks and international oilseed and oil prices rise.