China's Copper Output Growth Slows to Multi-Decade Low Amid Raw Material Shortages

China's refined copper output growth has slowed to its weakest pace in decades due to raw material shortages and weaker byproduct prices squeezing smelter margins. Analysts forecast a further slowdown, with growth expected to reach only 3% to 3.4% this year, down from 10.4% last year. The country's smelters are facing tighter access to both copper concentrate and scrap copper, limiting their ability to maintain recent production growth.

The pressure on Chinese output comes as global smelting capacity expansion outpaces available mine supply, extending a concentrate shortage that has persisted for years. Temporary disruptions at mines such as BHP's Escondida, MMG's Las Bambas, and Codelco's El Teniente have added to the supply strain.

The slowdown in Chinese output is likely to lend support to copper prices in the final quarter of this year. CRU analyst Brian Peng projected that copper would average $14,500 a ton in the fourth quarter, compared with a trading range of $11,700 to $14,875 so far.