China's Copper Production Growth Slows Sharply Amid Supply Chain Pressures

China's refined copper production growth is expected to slow sharply in 2026 due to tightening copper concentrate and scrap availability, as well as weaker sulphuric acid prices. According to foreign media reports, Wood Mackenzie and Zijin Tianfeng Futures predict China's refined copper output will increase by around 3-3.4% in 2026, compared to a growth rate of 10.4% in 2025.

This would represent the slowest annual growth rate since at least 2000 based on official production data. In fact, refined copper output growth stood at approximately 4% year-on-year during January-August, but is expected to slow down further in the fourth quarter due to tighter scrap copper supply and a shortage of copper concentrate.

The decline in sulphuric acid prices has also put pressure on smelter economics. Sulphuric acid, a major by-product of copper smelting, had previously helped offset extremely low copper concentrate treatment charges. Chinese sulphuric acid prices declined by around 11% during September.