Citi Warns $150 Oil Possible as Hormuz Disruptions Persist

Citi has revised its forecast for Brent crude prices in 2026, warning that if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted until June, prices could surge to $150 a barrel. The bank raised its base-case forecast for Brent to $110, $95 and $80 a barrel for the second, third and fourth quarter of 2026 respectively.

Citi also pushed back its expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the end of May from mid-to-late April after the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement during their second round of peace talks. The bank noted that oil prices have risen less than expected in recent weeks despite supply disruptions, citing large pre-conflict inventory builds and releases from International Energy Agency strategic stockpiles.

Under its bull-case scenario which carries a 30% probability Citi assumes oil flows remain disrupted through the end of June at levels similar to current outages. In that case Brent crude could spike to $150 a barrel with average prices near $130 in both the second and third quarters of 2026 before easing to $100 in the fourth quarter.