Copper prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory for the next few months, driven by several key factors including the Iran war, a sulphur shortage, supply-demand imbalances, and the threat of US tariffs on the red metal. JP Morgan Global Research forecasts the copper price to reach $14,800 in the fourth quarter of this year, citing sulphur shortages, tight mine supply, industrial growth, and potential US tariffs as primary catalysts.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, has revised its 2026 average annual copper price forecast upwards to $13,500 per tonne from $12,700 previously. The revision reflects tariff-driven distortions amplifying persistent supply-side tightness and reinforcing bullish sentiment. The three-month London Metal Exchange (LME) copper contract is currently trading around $1,4575 a tonne, with the metal gaining over 15% year-to-date (YTD) and more than 5% in the past month.
Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist (AOCE) attributes the recent surge in copper prices to mine disruptions and the resumption of the Congo’s copper concentrate export ban, which has limited supply. Strong US copper import demand in recent months has also contributed to the price surge. AOCE expects prices to remain high through 2028 before easing to about $11,600 a tonne by 2031.
Demand for copper is expected to remain robust through 2031, driven by the need for clean energy technologies, data centres, and broader electricity infrastructure. Supply is anticipated to grow gradually due to mine disruptions, trade challenges, and delays to new mines. JP Morgan’s Gregory Shearer notes that the medium-term environment for copper remains supportive, despite elevated prices and potential Fed rate hikes later this year.