Copper Prices Soar as Africa Drives Demand and Supply Chain Disruptions Bite

The price of copper surged to record highs in 2026, exceeding $14,000 per tonne in May. This is according to the IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026.

Africa was the fastest-growing region for copper demand last year, despite relatively low volumes. The continent's share of global primary copper output is increasing rapidly due to new project developments. These include expansions at Chinese-backed Malachite ore operations in the DRC and CMOC Group's Kisanfu mine expansion in Zambia.

The IEA notes that over 15% of global primary copper output relies on sulphuric acid leaching, which is affected by supply chain disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. China's ban on sulphuric acid exports has exacerbated these issues. The metal is essential for various sectors such as energy, transport, and construction.

The report highlights that recycling copper could become a major source of global copper supply. Currently, around 10% of copper is recycled, but this figure is expected to increase to 20% by 2040 due to improvements in collection and processing systems. If collection rates are significantly increased through targeted policy support, secondary supply could meet over a third of global copper demand by 2050.

The IEA warns that the copper supply gap remains sizeable due to insufficient project development. Global primary copper supply may face a 25% deficit in 2035 under today's policy settings. Copper grades are degrading, increasing capital costs and project complexity.