Crude and Copper Prices Soar on Supply Risks

Oil and Brent futures are trading near $90 per barrel due to supply risks from escalating hostilities in Lebanon and strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This has led investors to become more optimistic, with hedge funds increasing their net long stance in ICE Brent by 76,026 contracts to 240,748 contracts.

US oil drilling activity continues to expand, with a record 455 active rigs reported last week, according to Baker Hughes. The EIA projects US crude output will average 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and rise further to 14.2 million in 2027.

Copper prices have surged to an all-time peak of $14,396 per tonne due to severe supply scarcity. LME stockpiles dropped for a 42nd consecutive session to 204,975 tonnes, the lowest level since February. Chile's copper commission Cochilco anticipates national output will decline 2.6% year-on-year to 5.3 million tonnes in 2026.

Ukraine's grain shipments remain constrained due to the shutdown of the Black Sea corridor, with exports totaling just 590,000 tonnes in the first 12 days of August. Russian grain sales continue to gain momentum, with agricultural organizations selling 5.4 million tonnes of grain and legumes in July, up 9.1% year-on-year.