Crude Oil Prices and Refinery Margins Surge in Third Quarter 2026

Crude oil prices and refinery margins saw a notable rise throughout the third quarter of 2026, driven by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The front-month futures price for Brent crude oil started the quarter at $72 per barrel on July 1, reflecting increased oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz in June. However, military strikes resumed on July 7, pushing prices above $100 per barrel by July 23. Prices fluctuated between $79 and $98 per barrel until September 8, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.

Prices surged again on September 9, exceeding $100 per barrel due to escalated military actions against energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia. Key factors included U.S. and Iranian attacks on crude oil tankers, a U.S. blockade on Iranian oil exports, and attacks on critical oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Russia. The Brent crude oil futures price peaked at $109 per barrel on September 15, with spot prices reaching $132 per barrel. By the end of the quarter, prices averaged around $104 per barrel.

U.S. refineries operated at unseasonably high levels, with utilization averaging 95% and processing the most crude oil for the third quarter since 2019. High refinery inputs were driven by strong margins for transportation fuels. Gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel crack spreads were significantly elevated, with distillate fuel oil and jet fuel seeing the highest margins due to disrupted refining activities in key global regions. U.S. distillate fuel inventories were 13% below the five-year average, while gasoline inventories were 7% below and jet fuel inventories were 3% above their five-year averages.