Crude Oil Prices Surge Amid Ongoing Disruptions in Strait of Hormuz

The West Asia conflict has pushed up crude oil prices to over $86 per barrel. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and analysts at Rabobank International expect Brent crude to stay elevated in the near term due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have led to a significant reduction in global inventories.

The EIA projects Brent crude to average around $85 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, an increase of $11 from its previous estimate. Global oil inventories fell by an average of 4.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, and a further drawdown of 3.8 million barrels per day is expected in the third quarter.

Rabobank holds a more bullish outlook, raising its Brent forecast to $90 per barrel for both the third and fourth quarters of 2026, up from earlier estimates of $88 and $86. Its 2027 forecast has been raised to $86 per barrel, and the 2028 estimate to $79.