The World Gold Council has outlined three potential scenarios for the growth of the retail digital gold market by 2031. In the base case, the market is expected to expand from its current size of $45-$55 billion to $160-$170 billion, representing an annual growth rate of around 27%. This would make the digital gold market more than a quarter of the size of today’s gold-backed ETF market.
In the bull case, the market could reach $270-$280 billion by 2031 if barriers to adoption are removed more rapidly. Conversely, in the bear case, the market would only grow to $70-$80 billion if no significant barriers are addressed. The difference between the bear case and the other scenarios represents the value of latent demand that could be converted into investment.
The scenarios are driven by structural tailwinds such as population growth, a rising share of digitally enabled investors, and growth in investable wealth. The base case assumes stronger consumer protections, greater regulatory clarity, and wider distribution through banks and mainstream channels. The bull case envisions a harmonized global regulatory framework and broader access, while the bear case predicts limited consumer protections and fragmented regulation.
To achieve the base case, the digital gold market must focus on building trust through clear standards and effective regulation, unlocking access through familiar financial platforms, and expanding product utility through yield generation and collateral servicing. Regulatory momentum is already building, with initiatives in Indonesia, the UK, and Hong Kong aimed at reassuring potential investors and providing clarity for financial institutions.