Economic Strangulation Could Bring Down Iran's Regime

The Iranian regime's ability to maintain control may be dwindling due to economic pressure. Long queues at petrol stations, an inflation rate nearing 88% year-on-year, and a rial value exceeding 2 million to the dollar are just a few signs of the country's struggling economy.

David Rosenberg, a columnist with over thirty years' experience in Middle Eastern economics, politics, and society, believes that US economic pressure could jeopardize the survival of the Islamic Republic. According to him, 'Washington has threatened many times to strangle Tehran economically, but Iran has developed a remarkable ability to circumvent sanctions, largely thanks to China, Russia, Iraq, and Turkey.'

However, Rosenberg points out that Iranian oil exports have plummeted to almost zero following the new embargo imposed by the United States. The analyst emphasizes that 'oil, therefore, not only financed the Iranian economy but, above all, the apparatus that protects the regime'. He believes that if oil revenues dry up, it becomes more difficult for the regime to pay its soldiers, who may then lose their will to obey orders.

Rosenberg remains cautious about predicting when or if the regime will fall. 'Sanctions rarely bring about regime change on their own,' he notes. However, he concludes that 'the regime could fall not because Iranians are suddenly more ready for revolution, but because the repressive apparatus might run out of economic fuel.'