EIA Raises Oil Price Forecasts Amid Ongoing Middle East Conflict

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing rapidly falling global stockpiles due to lost Middle Eastern supply from the ongoing Iran conflict.

The EIA now expects oil prices to average around $91 per barrel in the spot market this year, marking a nearly 5% increase from its previous 2026 forecast. Prices are projected to average $84.65 per barrel this year, also up nearly 5% from the prior estimate.

Global oil inventories have declined by 400 million barrels so far in 2026 and will continue falling through year-end, the EIA estimated. Middle East oil production shut-ins increased to 6.7 million barrels per day in August from 5 million barrels per day in July.