El Niño Threatens Agricultural Markets as Strongest Event on Record Looms

The strongest El Niño event in recorded history is brewing in the Pacific Ocean and may have far-reaching consequences for agricultural markets worldwide.

According to the British Met Office, the surface temperature of the central equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean has exceeded previous cycles, with its peak expected later this year. This phenomenon could change weather conditions in major agricultural regions, including Australia, India, and southern Africa, where drought risks are increasing, while certain areas of South America, the Mediterranean, and East Africa may receive more rainfall.

While previous strong El Niño events did not lead to a decrease in global grain yields, significant losses were recorded in some countries. For instance, during the 2015-2016 event, corn yields in South Africa and wheat yields in India decreased.

The combination of El Niño with export disruptions through the Black Sea and high energy and fertilizer prices poses a significant threat to food markets, according to the Center for Global Development (CGD). Additionally, wheat futures in Paris rose by 26%, corn in Chicago by 23%, and soybeans by 29% from January 2 to September 22, 2026.