El Niño's Impact on Global Food Supplies Reduced by Record Inventories and New Export Hubs

The global food system is better equipped to handle this year's 'super' El Niño due to near-record inventories, technological advancements, and the rise of key exporters like Brazil and Russia.

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and analysts, global farm production has outpaced consumption and population growth since the 1980s. Higher-yielding crop varieties, greater use of fertiliser, improved irrigation, and crop protection have lifted yields of staples like rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans.

'Even during drought conditions, better irrigation management and crop science mean we can still produce marketable yields,' said Andrew Whitelaw of Australian agricultural consultancy Episode 3. The potential impact on global food supplies and prices exists, but our improved preparedness means the disruptions are much less severe than they would have been in previous decades.

El Niño has already disrupted crop planting across large parts of Asia, including India, Southeast Asia, and Australia. Shortages of fertiliser and diesel caused by the Iran war add to global food production risks. Researchers have evolved drought-tolerant corn hybrids widely adopted across Africa and the Americas since 2015.