EU Corn Crisis Drives Up Imports and Prices

The European Union is facing its smallest corn crop since 2007 due to declining production. According to the European Commission, corn production will fall to 51.9 million metric tons (mmt) from 60.2 mmt last year. The USDA also lowered its estimate for European corn production in its July WASDE update, predicting a decline from 57.5 mmt for 2025-26 to 53.78 mmt for 2026-27.

In response to the decline in production, the European Commission increased its estimate for corn imports to 24 mmt from 19 mmt last month. This would surpass the record of 23.6 mmt set in 2018. Ukraine has been a primary source of European corn imports, but with the recent escalation in the war with Russia, Black Sea ports are shut down.

Ukraine's farm minister confirmed they have no real substitute for exports, leaving European importers to look to North American suppliers. As of July 23, total U.S. corn export commitments stood at 7.628 mmt for the 2025-26 marketing year, accounting for 41% of Europe's import requirements.

The technical analysis suggests significant upside potential ahead, with a measured move equal in size to the old channel range leaving an objective of 279 euro/mt. A bull pennant is also forming, with a measured move roughly 308 euro/mt.