EU Gas Imports Set to Soar to Nearly 100% by 2050

The European Union's reliance on imported gas is set to rise significantly by 2050, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie. Currently, the EU imports around 85% of its gas needs, and this figure is expected to remain steady through the early 2030s. However, Norwegian supply will decline in the 2030s, while North African volumes face domestic demand pressure, and Russian pipeline gas is being phased out.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is filling the gap, with its share of EU supply potentially rising to 63% by 2050. Of this, 77% is expected to come from the United States. This growing reliance on American exports comes as infrastructure such as the Enbridge pipeline in Texas illustrates the expansion of US export capacity.

Wood Mackenzie modelled three scenarios for EU member states with material upstream sectors. In the low case, production falls from 43 bcm in 2028 to just 2 bcm by 2050, with LNG covering the entire shortfall. The high case, which reflects favourable policy and investment conditions, sees production reaching 77 bcm by 2042, meeting 38% of demand.

Exploration drives most of the upside in the high case, with the Black Sea and East Mediterranean holding 70% of yet-to-find volume. Greece alone accounts for a third of this potential, as Energean and ExxonMobil prepare to drill the country's first deepwater exploration well in 2027.