European natural gas prices have surged more than threefold since the start of 2026, driven by persistent supply disruptions and low inventory levels. The Dutch TTF futures, the benchmark for European natural gas prices, have rallied over 200% year-to-date, reaching levels last seen in December 2022. The rally has been fueled by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have trapped about 20% of global LNG exports from the UAE and Qatar.
Despite increased US LNG exports to Europe, the region is struggling to rebuild its inventories. US LNG exports rose to 10.9 million metric tons in September, with over half of the cargoes heading to Europe. However, the disruption of LNG flows from the Persian Gulf has made it difficult for Europe to replenish its storage facilities, which are currently at 73.94%, well below historical averages. Germany, the largest storage capacity holder in Europe, is only about 50% full and is expected to fall short of its 70% storage target.
Technical indicators suggest a potential corrective pullback in Dutch TTF futures. The RSI stands at 69, near the overbought territory, and a bullish golden cross pattern has been in place for over three months. Analysts are watching the support levels at 84.74 euros per MWh and 83.98 euros per MWh, with a potential rally targeting 88.93 euros per MWh. However, a sudden escalation in supply disruptions could push prices even higher.
Key risks include a softening of Europe’s demand or a shift in cargo competition, where Asia outbids Europe, cutting realized LNG prices and utilization. Additionally, a sudden escalation in supply disruptions could trap more LNG exports from the Persian Gulf, extending the squeeze and pushing TTF prices through 88.93 euros per MWh.