US farm firms are bracing for continued uncertainty as soaring diesel prices and geopolitical tensions disrupt agricultural supply chains. Bunge Global SA and AGCO Corp. reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, but both companies highlighted a challenging global landscape. Bunge's Chief Financial Officer John Neppl described the environment as "highly dynamic with elevated uncertainty," citing conflicts in the Middle East and Black Sea regions that are affecting commodity flows.
AGCO, the owner of brands like Fendt and Massey Ferguson, cut its annual sales outlook due to higher costs, rising interest rates, and pressure on crop prices. CEO Eric Hansotia noted that global demand for farm machinery is at its weakest level in over a decade, with some recovery expected in 2027. The company saw better sales in North America following an August spike in crop prices, but demand elsewhere was weak due to record diesel costs and elevated prices for fertilizer and seeds.
The Trump administration has attempted to alleviate some of the pressure on farmers, recently announcing $8 billion in fuel aid ahead of midterm elections. On Thursday, AGCO shares rose 5.6% in New York, while Bunge shares fell 4.7% as analysts viewed the firm’s unchanged guidance as implying softer fourth-quarter earnings. Bunge expects slightly lower results in its soybean processing business due to shrinking margins in the US, Brazil, and Europe, but anticipates higher results in grain merchandising and milling.
Geopolitical tensions and evolving government policies continue to impact agricultural flows, with China’s commitments to purchase US farm goods playing a significant role. Bunge CEO Greg Heckman highlighted the company’s ability to pivot and redirect crop flows, noting that China has pledged to buy at least $17 billion of US farm goods annually through 2028. Soybean and corn futures hit multi-month lows before paring losses, while wheat futures jumped after reports of China’s interest in US wheat shipments.
Biofuels remain a bright spot for the agriculture industry, with strong policies driving demand for feedstocks like soybeans and corn. The Trump administration recently proposed requiring refiners to mix in more biofuels through next year, a move that Bunge’s Heckman described as "definitely good for demand and good for the market overall."