Fitch raises oil and gas price forecasts amid market shifts
Fitch Ratings has adjusted its oil and gas price forecasts, signaling a shift in market expectations. The agency maintained its 2026 oil price forecast at $87 per barrel but raised its 2027 projection by $5 to $70 per barrel. Jakub Zasada, Director in the EMEA Corporate Ratings Group at Fitch, shared these updates during the "Fitch on Azerbaijan 2026" event in Baku.
The 2026 forecast remained unchanged despite recent volatility, including a mid-June drop to $70 per barrel due to a U.S.-Iran memorandum and restored supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices rebounded above $100 per barrel in early September following strikes on Saudi Arabian infrastructure.
Looking ahead, Fitch expects global oil supply to reach nearly 107 million barrels per day (bpd) by the fourth quarter, driven by production growth in non-OPEC countries like the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina. Meanwhile, global demand is projected to stay around 104 million bpd, creating a market surplus.
On the gas front, Fitch increased its European gas price forecast for the current year to $17 per 1,000 cubic feet (approximately $600 per 1,000 cubic meters) and lowered the 2027 forecast to $11 per 1,000 cubic feet. This revision is attributed to reduced liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East, particularly from Qatar, which declared force majeure earlier this year.