Freeport-McMoRan has reported strong Q3 2026 results, with sales reaching US$7.55 billion and net income at US$1.17 billion. The company also issued optimistic Q4 guidance, forecasting its strongest quarter of the year. Copper sales are expected to rise 17%, while gold volumes could nearly triple from Q3 levels. This outlook is driven by higher volumes and cost management, though it comes with risks related to project spending and execution.
The Q3 earnings release underscores Freeport-McMoRan's solid profitability, with nine-month revenue totaling US$20.81 billion and net income at US$3.04 billion. Management highlights low incremental costs from copper leach additives and heated solutions, along with increased mining rates at U.S. sites. However, rising project budgets, such as the Bagdad expansion pegged at US$4.5 billion, pose potential challenges.
Analysts project revenue growth of 17.4% annually over the next three years, with profit margins expanding from 11.3% to 16.0% by around 2029. Earnings are expected to rise from US$2.9 billion to about US$6.7 billion by 2029, assuming successful execution of key projects. Some analysts are even more optimistic, forecasting revenue growth of 25% annually and earnings reaching US$9.7 billion by 2029.
The company's investment narrative hinges on volume-led growth in copper and gold, with potential upside of 27% to its current price. However, risks include disruptions at Grasberg or Indonesian smelters, and cost pressures on U.S. projects. Investors must weigh these factors against the strong Q4 outlook and long-term growth projections.