The October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report delivered a bearish outlook for corn, with new crop ending stocks rising sharply from 1.567 billion bushels to 1.849 billion bushels. This increase pushed the stock-to-usage ratio to around 11%, leading to a roughly 20-cent decline in corn prices, though at one point prices were nearly limit down.
The report's biggest surprise was the yield adjustment, which increased to 181.2 bushels per acre despite a 3% drop in the USDA's Good/Excellent ratings. Analysts noted the inconsistency but acknowledged the USDA's decision. With US corn now expected to be the cheapest on the global market, exports are anticipated to rise starting next week.
New crop corn has a 200 million bushel cushion before price rationing becomes necessary, suggesting a trading range of $4.50 to $5.25. Corn closed around $4.80 on the day of the report. Soybeans and wheat remained relatively neutral, with wheat dragged lower by corn's decline and soybeans trading on their own fundamentals.
The next USDA Crop Progress report, delayed due to a US bank and government holiday on Monday, is expected on Tuesday. Analysts will be watching to see if the Good/Excellent ratings for corn rebound.