Fuel Markets Plagued by Historic Volatility as JSV Global Warns Against Single-Number Forecasts

Jason Venturelli, founder and CEO of JSV Global, warns that the era of forecasting fuel costs off a single expected number is over. This comes after the largest geopolitical oil supply disruption on record occurred in early 2026, with global oil supply falling by more than 10 million barrels per day in March alone.

The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for nearly a fifth of the world's oil supply, was effectively closed to shipping due to military action affecting Iran. This led to a surge in fuel prices, with WTI crude rising nearly 98% from its starting point and touching a 46-month high above $112 per barrel by the second quarter.

Venturelli notes that any organization that built its 2026 budget on a single crude number was already behind before the year started. He cautions against reading long-term outlooks as signals to relax, citing the narrow set of chokepoints and fragile peace process.