Germany's Gas Supply Faces Major Uncertainties This Winter

Germany's gas supply is facing significant uncertainties this winter due to various risks. According to Professor Andreas C. Goldthau, low storage levels and potential disruptions to international LNG supplies are putting pressure on the European gas market.

The ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz continues to cause market uncertainty, with significantly less liquefied natural gas (LNG) available globally. Gas storage levels are at historically low levels, and the mandated refill targets are unlikely to be met by November, warns Goldthau.

Even isolated regional events could have an impact on the international gas market, such as potential disruptions caused by hurricanes affecting US LNG facilities or a strike at Australian export terminals. As an extreme scenario, US export licences for LNG could be called into question or revoked, which could reduce available supply and cause European gas prices to soar.