Global Wheat Shortage Looms as Farmers Ditch High-Protein Varieties

A global shortage of high-quality wheat is projected on the market, according to economist Dennis Voznesensky from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The main reason for this potential shortage is the reduced use of nitrogen fertilizer due to its high cost, which has led farmers to opt for higher-yielding varieties with lower protein content.

Analysts also note that the price difference between wheat with different protein contents has narrowed in recent years, making it less economically advantageous for producers to grow high-protein wheat. In Canada, this trend is particularly noticeable, where market participants have seen a narrowing of the price gap between wheat with 14.5%, 13.5%, and 13% protein content.

Millers are increasingly blending high-protein Canadian wheat with grain from Ukraine and Russia that has lower protein content. However, if global supplies of high-protein wheat do indeed decline, the price gap between food-grade and feed-grade wheat could widen in the 2026/27 marketing year.