Gold Market Divided as Central Banks Stockpile Amid Cautious Forecasts

The gold market is experiencing a two-speed phenomenon, where central banks are accumulating bullion at an unprecedented rate while financial institutions trim their price forecasts.

According to Commerzbank, gold could reach $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026, but Citigroup predicts a dip to $4,300 over the next three months. JPMorgan estimates an average of $5,243 in 2026, while Morgan Stanley sees $5,200 for the second half.

The London Bullion Market Association's survey suggests a more measured consensus, with analysts predicting a year-end average near $4,500 and optimistic calls reaching as high as $5,100.

Central banks are driving demand, with 288.9 tonnes of purchases in the second quarter of 2026, a 62 percent increase from the same period last year and an all-time high. China's central bank is leading the charge, adding 0.32 million ounces to its reserves in May.