Gold Prices May Reach $5,000 per Ounce in H1 2027: ICICI Bank

ICICI Bank's research report suggests that gold prices may rise to $4,600-$5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027 due to a potential easing of US real yields and a stronger dollar. The bank expects gold to trade in the $4,200-$4,600 per ounce range for the remainder of 2026 with a marginal upside bias in the first half of 2027.

The report attributes the current correction in gold prices to a more hawkish repricing of US monetary policy amid persistent inflation concerns, higher oil prices, and stronger-than-expected labour market data. Despite this near-term pressure, ICICI Bank believes that these factors may not be enough to reverse the broader strength in bullion.

The bank notes that investment demand, continued central bank purchases, and demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical, financial, and policy uncertainty will continue to support the medium-term outlook. It also mentions that concerns over US fiscal deficits and high public debt, as well as central banks' diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets, will remain structural supports.

For India, ICICI Bank expects local gold prices to remain largely driven by global bullion prices, with the rupee adding another source of volatility. The bank retained its forecast for domestic gold prices to trade at ₹1.40 lakh-₹1.60 lakh per 10 grams through the remainder of 2026.